Conference game
New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee
Saturday, November 28, 2026 · 2:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
New Mexico State 47% Underdog
Middle Tennessee 53% Favorite
Middle Tennessee is the model's favorite at 53%. New Mexico State has a 47% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.7 rating points baked in for Middle Tennessee — venue-specific learned value (n=45 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
New Mexico State offense
Higher fit 45 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Middle Tennessee offense
40 / 100 Style-neutral matchup