2026 Week 9 · Conference game
Sam Houston at Missouri State
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Plaster Sports Complex
Sam Houston
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -26.0
- National rank
- 134
- Proj. wins
- 2.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Missouri State
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -19.1
- National rank
- 126
- Proj. wins
- 5.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Sam Houston
22%
Missouri State
78%
Missouri State 90% CI: 71% – 84% Δ rating 6.9
Missouri State is the model's favorite at 78%. Sam Houston has a 22% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.4 rating points baked in for Missouri State — venue-specific learned value (n=5 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Sam Houston offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Missouri State offense
46 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Plaster Sports Complex
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No