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Colorado

Buffaloes · Big 12

GIE rank
#108
of 138 FBS
Rating
1433
2026 Week 10
Record
3-5
2026 season
Proj record
4-8
12-game season

Head coach Deion Sanders Year 4 with Colorado

Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
4.1
1.1 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
3 to 6
Final rank (90%)
#110 (92–122)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Colorado's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 4 at Georgia Tech ACC Win, 14-13 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs Weber State Non-FBS Win, 52-21 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 at Northwestern Big Ten Loss, 7-41 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 at Baylor Big 12 Loss, 13-23 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 vs Texas Tech Big 12 Loss, 7-29 Final
Wk 6 Bye
Wk 7 Oct 18 vs Utah Big 12 Loss, 24-27 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 at Oklahoma State Big 12 Loss, 24-57 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 vs Kansas State Big 12 Win, 27-24 Final
Wk 10 Nov 8 at Arizona State Big 12 Win probability: 24%
Wk 11 Nov 14 vs Houston Big 12 Win probability: 13%
Wk 12 Nov 21 at Cincinnati Big 12 Win probability: 16%
Wk 13 Nov 28 vs UCF Big 12 Win probability: 31%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Colorado: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Colorado sits at 2–3 with a rating of –3.3, and nothing has shifted in GIE's assessment since last week. The Buffaloes' most recent outing—a 29–7 home loss to Texas Tech in Week 5—crystallized their offensive struggles: a 14.5% red-zone…

  • Recap

    Colorado: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Colorado sits at No. 65 overall after a 1–0 start, though the rating has held steady following a tight Week 1 road win at Georgia Tech (14–13). The Buffaloes are projected to win around 4 games this season, and GIE gives them virtually no…

  • Recap

    Colorado: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Colorado sits at 3–9 after dropping a 24–14 road decision to Kansas State in Week 14, a result that reflects the Buffaloes' struggles throughout the season. GIE's current rating of –8.3 places them at 96th nationally, underscoring a…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Kaidon Salter

GIE projects a -2.4 rating drop and a -9.6pp shift in playoff probability if Colorado loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

64 score

  • Quarterback 84% (4/5)
  • Offensive line 71% (12/17) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 42% (21/29)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 63% (12/25)
  • Secondary 21% (7/18)
  • Special teams 100% (9/10)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+2.5 rating

43 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Colorado incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Danny ScuderoWR From San José State San José State 237
Gideon ESPN LampronLB From Bowling Green Bowling Green 188
Kam PerryWR From Miami (OH) Miami (OH) 178
Naeten MitchellDB From New Mexico State New Mexico State 169
Justin EaglinDB From James Madison James Madison 143
Ernest CampbellWR From Sacramento State Sacramento State 139

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 36.3%
    45th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 14.5%
    48th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 33.1%
    33th — below avg
  • Late & close 3.4 yds/play
    18th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.