UCF
Knights · Big 12
- GIE rank
- #75
- of 138 FBS
- Rating
- 1535
- 2026 Week 10
- Record
- 4-4
- 2026 season
- Proj record
- 6-6
- 12-game season
Head coach Scott Frost Year 2 with UCF
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
Season projection
- Expected wins
- 6.2
- 2.2 more wins in 4 left
- Win range (90%)
- 4 to 8
- Final rank (90%)
- #74 (55–93)
- Make playoff
- 0%
- Win conference
- 0%
Path to glory
No remaining game changes UCF's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 3 | vs Bethune-Cookman Non-FBS | Win, 73-6 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | at Pittsburgh ACC | Loss, 7-12 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | vs Georgia State Sun Belt | Win, 44-30 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | vs TCU Big 12 | Win, 21-13 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | at Houston Big 12 | Loss, 17-27 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 10 | at Oklahoma State Big 12 | Loss, 28-42 Final |
| Wk 7 | Bye | |
| Wk 8 Oct 24 | vs BYU Big 12 | Win, 39-31 Final |
| Wk 9 Oct 30 | vs Baylor Big 12 | Loss, 9-41 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 7 | at Kansas Big 12 | |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | vs Arizona State Big 12 | |
| Wk 12 Nov 20 | vs Iowa State Big 12 | |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | at Colorado Big 12 | |
In the news
- UCF Opponent Review: How BYU's Win Over Iowa State Shows Knights Fans What To Watch For Against Cougars (opens in a new tab)
- Sights & Sounds: UCF Football’s First Trip to Oklahoma State & Boone Pickens Stadium (opens in a new tab)
- 3 Defensive Takeaways From UCF’s Loss to No. 18 Oklahoma State (opens in a new tab)
- Six Biggest Winners and Losers from Oklahoma State's Win Over UCF (opens in a new tab)
- Oklahoma State pulls ahead in fourth quarter, defeats UCF 42-28 (opens in a new tab)
- UCF QB Keyone Jenkins Reacts to Costly Turnover, Guilt of Oklahoma State Loss (opens in a new tab)
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
If QB1 is out
GIE projects a -1.5 rating drop and a -5.9pp shift in playoff probability if UCF loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Returning production · 2026
33 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
+0.9 rating
31 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Bruno DallEDGE From Akron | Akron | 172 |
| Alonza Barnett IIIQB From James Madison | James Madison | 141 |
| Jahleel CulbreathLB From Old Dominion | Old Dominion | 116 |
| Landen ChambersRB From Central Arkansas | Central Arkansas | 105 |
| Josh DerryWR From Monmouth | Monmouth | 105 |
| Jonathan BibbsWR From UL Monroe | UL Monroe | 80 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Situational efficiency · 2025
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.