4thand4cast 🎃 ↳ powered by GIE
Sign in

Search 4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

Navy

Midshipmen · American Athletic

GIE rank
#116
of 138 FBS
Rating
1406
2026 Week 10
Record
2-6
2026 season
Proj record
4-8
12-game season

Head coach Brian Newberry Year 4 with Navy

Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
3.7
1.7 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
2 to 5
Final rank (90%)
#115 (100–127)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Navy's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Towson Non-FBS Win, 42-15 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 at Florida Atlantic American Athletic Loss, 30-38 Final
Wk 3 Bye
Wk 4 Sep 25 at UAB American Athletic Loss, 20-24 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 at Air Force Mountain West Loss, 9-14 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs Tulsa American Athletic Win, 34-26 Final
Wk 7 Oct 18 at UTSA American Athletic Loss, 34-38 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 vs North Texas American Athletic Loss, 39-49 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 vs Notre Dame FBS Independents · neutral Loss, 13-35 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs Temple American Athletic Win probability: 75%
Wk 11 Bye
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Memphis American Athletic Win probability: 32%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at Charlotte American Athletic Win probability: 93%
Wk 14 Bye
Wk 15 Dec 12 vs Army American Athletic · neutral Win probability: 42%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Navy: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Navy sits at 1–3 with a rating of –3.7, unchanged from last week after losing to Air Force 14–9 in Week 5. The Midshipmen have managed just 22% of their red-zone possessions in touchdowns, a critical efficiency gap that's dragging down an…

  • Recap

    Navy: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Navy sits at 64th overall with a 1-0 record after dismantling Towson 42–15 in Week 1, though GIE's rating hasn't budged from 1.2—a sign the model views that result as expected rather than impressive. The offense showed some teeth early,…

  • Recap

    Navy: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Navy sits at 46th overall with an 11–2 record after a narrow 17–16 home victory over Army in Week 16. The one-point win underscores the Midshipmen's ability to grind out results in tight spots, though the razor-thin margin suggests…

Show 2 more Navy stories
  • Divergence

    Why GIE has Navy lower than the Coaches Poll

    GIE ranks Navy 21 spots lower than the Coaches Poll, reflecting a more cautious view of the Midshipmen's trajectory. While Navy's recent wins—including a dramatic one-point victory over Army and a ten-point road win at Memphis—have…

  • Divergence

    Why GIE has Navy lower than the AP Poll

    GIE ranks Navy 24 spots lower than the AP Poll, reflecting a more skeptical view of the Midshipmen's body of work. While Navy's recent wins—including a narrow one-point victory over Army and a dominant road performance at Memphis—have…

In the news

Show 9 more headlines

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Blake Horvath

GIE projects a -8.1 rating drop and a -32.4pp shift in playoff probability if Navy loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

41 score

  • Quarterback 21% (6/11)
  • Offensive line 73% (27/37) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 10% (30/48)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 43% (38/55)
  • Secondary 79% (21/31)
  • Special teams 76% (9/12)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 46.7%
    95th — elite
  • Red-zone TD rate 21.8%
    94th — elite
  • 4th-down aggression 53.3%
    96th — elite
  • Late & close 6.3 yds/play
    79th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.