2026 Week 12 · Conference game
Memphis at Navy
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 5:00 PM UTC
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Memphis
American Athletic
- Record
- 1-0
- Rating
- 0.3
- National rank
- 67
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 3%
Navy
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 1.2
- National rank
- 64
- Proj. wins
- 7.5
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Memphis
37%
Navy
63%
Navy 90% CI: 53% – 71% Δ rating 0.9
Navy is the model's favorite at 63%. Memphis has a 37% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.2 rating points baked in for Navy — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Memphis offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Navy offense
28 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 5:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No