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Louisiana

Ragin' Cajuns · Sun Belt

GIE rank
#64
of 138 FBS
Rating
1568
2026 Week 10
Record
5-3
2026 season
Proj record
8-4
12-game season

Head coach Michael Desormeaux Year 5 with Louisiana

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
7.9
2.9 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
6 to 9
Final rank (90%)
#60 (46–81)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
2%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Louisiana's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 6 vs Lamar Non-FBS Win, 38-7 Final
Wk 2 Sep 13 at USC Big Ten Loss, 30-49 Final
Wk 3 Sep 20 vs UAB American Athletic Win, 21-14 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 at Charlotte American Athletic Win, 34-7 Final
Wk 5 Oct 4 vs Arkansas State Sun Belt Win, 23-20 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 at Louisiana Tech Sun Belt Loss, 31-32 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 vs Troy Sun Belt Win, 33-6 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 at Southern Miss Sun Belt Loss, 31-35 Final
Wk 9 Bye
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs South Alabama Sun Belt Win probability: 86%
Wk 11 Nov 13 at UL Monroe Sun Belt Win probability: 94%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Coastal Carolina Sun Belt Win probability: 84%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at Georgia State Sun Belt Win probability: 71%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Louisiana: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Louisiana sits at 4–1 after a narrow 23–20 home win over Arkansas State in Week 5, a result that kept the Cajuns' rating flat at –3. GIE projects 8.9 expected wins for the season, though the playoff probability remains at zero—the gap…

  • Recap

    Louisiana: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Louisiana opened with a dominant 38–7 win over Lamar, but the rating hasn't budged—GIE still pegs them at 102nd nationally with a -10.6 mark. That's the real story: one big result against a weak opponent doesn't shift the model's view of…

  • Recap

    Louisiana: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Louisiana sits at 105th overall in GIE's ratings after a 6–7 season that included a Week 14 home win over UL Monroe, 30–27. The Ragin' Cajuns have largely treaded water in the Sun Belt, neither building momentum nor collapsing entirely.…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

D'Wayne' Winfield

GIE projects a 5.1 rating drop and a 20.6pp shift in playoff probability if Louisiana loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

84 score

  • Quarterback 92% (4/5)
  • Offensive line 94% (17/18) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 57% (24/27)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 73% (26/28)
  • Secondary 99% (22/23)
  • Special teams 100% (5/6)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−1.4 rating

5 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Louisiana incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Anthony Reagan Jr.RB From Howard Howard 50
Princeton MalbrueLB From LSU LSU 2
Jayce MitchellOL From Tulane Tulane —
Brodrick StewartDL From Tarleton State Tarleton State —
Tito ChikereDE From East Texas A&M East Texas A&M —

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 36.8%
    49th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 12.4%
    28th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 34.5%
    40th — below avg
  • Late & close 5.2 yds/play
    55th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.