Louisiana at Georgia State

Louisiana 90% CI

65–80%

Δ rating

Louisiana +9.6

Louisiana is the model's favorite at 73%. Georgia State has a 27% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.6 rating points baked in for Georgia State — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.