Hornets · Mid-American
Head coach Alonzo Carter Year 1 with Sacramento State
Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation
No remaining game changes Sacramento State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Aug 29 | at Eastern Michigan Mid-American | Loss, 17-28 Final |
| Wk 1 Sep 6 | vs Mississippi Valley State Non-FBS | Win, 52-0 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 13 | at Fresno State Pac-12 | Loss, 3-49 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 20 | vs North Dakota State Mountain West | Loss, 10-31 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 27 | vs Massachusetts Mid-American | Loss, 6-35 Final |
| Wk 5 | Bye | |
| Wk 6 Oct 10 | at Bowling Green Mid-American | Loss, 10-38 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 18 | vs Ohio Mid-American | Loss, 7-48 Final |
| Wk 8 Oct 24 | at Ball State Mid-American | Loss, 17-34 Final |
| Wk 9 Oct 31 | vs Kent State Mid-American | Win, 31-10 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 5 | vs Toledo Mid-American | |
| Wk 11 Nov 12 | at Central Michigan Mid-American | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | vs Southern Utah Non-FBS | No win prob. |
| Wk 13 Nov 29 | at Hawai'i Mountain West | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
GIE projects a -4.4 rating drop and a -17.7pp shift in playoff probability if Sacramento State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
48 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
−1.3 rating
24 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Davion GodleyRB From Weber State | Weber State | 38 |
| Matt ColemanWR From San José State | San José State | 24 |
| Carson ConklinQB From Fresno State | Fresno State | 14 |
| Kyle KoontzTE From Houston Christian | Houston Christian | 14 |
| Dionte ThorntonCB From Portland State | Portland State | 9 |
| Darson JeantyLB From Lafayette | Lafayette | 5 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
