North Dakota State at Sacramento State
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 10:30 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 North Dakota State Winner | 21 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 31 |
 Sacramento State | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
GIE pre-game call: North Dakota State at 99%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
North Dakota State 99% Favorite
Sacramento State 1% Underdog
North Dakota State is the model's favorite at 99%. Sacramento State has a 1% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.5 rating points baked in for Sacramento State — venue-specific learned value (n=4 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
- Sacramento State recap Sacramento State: 2026 Week 3 recap Sacramento State sits at 1–1 after a dominant Week 1 shutout of Mississippi Valley State, but the Hornets haven't budged in GIE's ratings—holding steady at –23.4 and ranked 131st. That stagnation masks an uncomfortable truth: the blowout…
- North Dakota State recap North Dakota State: 2026 Week 3 recap North Dakota State remains undefeated at 2–0 after dismantling Jacksonville State 33–7 in Week 1, but GIE isn't convinced yet—the Bison sit at rank 75 with a rating of –1.8, unchanged from last week. That red-zone TD rate of 18% is the…