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North Dakota State

Bison · Mountain West

GIE rank
#35
of 138 FBS
Rating
1644
2026 Week 10
Record
7-2
2026 season
Proj record
9-3
12-game season

Head coach Tim Polasek Year 1 with North Dakota State

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
9.4
2.4 more wins in 3 left
Win range (90%)
8 to 10
Final rank (90%)
#36 (27–53)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
21%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes North Dakota State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Aug 29 vs Jacksonville State Conference USA Win, 33-7 Final
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Fordham Non-FBS Win, 38-0 Final
Wk 2 Sep 13 at Air Force Mountain West Win, 38-32 Final
Wk 3 Sep 20 at Sacramento State Mid-American Win, 31-10 Final
Wk 4 Bye
Wk 5 Oct 3 vs Wyoming Mountain West Win, 28-0 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 at UNLV Mountain West Loss, 7-13 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 vs Nevada Mountain West Win, 31-17 Final
Wk 8 Oct 25 at New Mexico Mountain West Loss, 16-21 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 vs UTEP Mountain West Win, 31-7 Final
Wk 10 Bye
Wk 11 Nov 15 at Hawai'i Mountain West Win probability: 88%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Northern Illinois Mountain West Win probability: 99%
Wk 13 Nov 27 at San José State Mountain West Win probability: 90%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    North Dakota State: 2026 Week 7 recap

    North Dakota State remains unbeaten at 5-0, holding steady at a GIE rating of 7.8 and ranked 45th nationally. The Bison throttled Wyoming 28-0 in Week 5, a dominant defensive performance that kept them on track. Their red-zone efficiency…

  • Recap

    North Dakota State: 2026 Week 3 recap

    North Dakota State remains undefeated at 2–0 after dismantling Jacksonville State 33–7 in Week 1, but GIE isn't convinced yet—the Bison sit at rank 75 with a rating of –1.8, unchanged from last week. That red-zone TD rate of 18% is the…

  • Recap

    North Dakota State: 2025 Week 16 recap

    North Dakota State's 12–1 regular season came to an abrupt halt in Week 15 with a one-point home loss to Illinois State, a result that fundamentally reshapes their postseason picture. The Bison had built one of the nation's strongest…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

51 score

  • Quarterback 12% (4/5)
  • Offensive line 78% (14/18) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 59% (26/36)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 67% (27/38)
  • Secondary 63% (16/21)
  • Special teams 71% (2/5)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−1.4 rating

8 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

North Dakota State incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Nyeoti PunniRB From Holy Cross Holy Cross 31
Keith Williams Jr.LB From Cornell Cornell 16
Kene AneneOL From Kansas Kansas —
Jordan McCantsWR From West Virginia West Virginia —
Jeremiah PattersonWR From Arizona Arizona —
Truman GriffithDE From Kansas State Kansas State —

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 48.5%
    98th — elite
  • Red-zone TD rate 17.6%
    76th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 44.0%
    83th — strong
  • Late & close 3.0 yds/play
    15th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.