2026 Week 2
Sacramento State at Fresno State
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 2:30 AM UTC
Valley Children's Stadium
Sacramento State
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-1
- Rating
- -23.4
- National rank
- 131
- Proj. wins
- 7.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Fresno State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -1.4
- National rank
- 73
- Proj. wins
- 6.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Sacramento State
5%
Fresno State
95%
Fresno State 90% CI: 94% – 97% Δ rating 22.0
Fresno State is the model's favorite at 95%. Sacramento State has a 5% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Fresno State — venue-specific learned value (n=47 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Sacramento State offense
30 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Fresno State offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
73°F
Precipitation
2%
Wind
3 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 2:30 AM UTC
- Venue
- Valley Children's Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No