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Iowa State

Cyclones · Big 12

GIE rank
#73
of 138 FBS
Rating
1539
2026 Week 10
Record
4-4
2026 season
Proj record
6-6
12-game season

Head coach Jimmy Rogers Year 1 with Iowa State

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
5.8
1.8 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
4 to 7
Final rank (90%)
#74 (57–94)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Iowa State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Southeast Missouri State Non-FBS Win, 38-10 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 at Iowa Big Ten Loss, 13-16 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Bowling Green Mid-American Win, 55-7 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs Utah Big 12 Loss, 17-31 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 vs West Virginia Big 12 Win, 45-42 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 at BYU Big 12 Loss, 10-24 Final
Wk 7 Bye
Wk 8 Oct 24 at Arizona Big 12 Loss, 3-39 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 vs Oklahoma State Big 12 Win, 51-49 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 at Baylor Big 12 Win probability: 18%
Wk 11 Nov 14 vs Cincinnati Big 12 Win probability: 34%
Wk 12 Nov 20 at UCF Big 12 Win probability: 26%
Wk 13 Nov 28 vs Kansas State Big 12 Win probability: 28%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Iowa State: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Iowa State sits at 3–2 after a 45–42 home win over West Virginia in Week 5, though GIE's rating holds steady at 3.4, ranking them 58th nationally. The close victory masked underlying inefficiency: a 15% red-zone touchdown rate signals the…

  • Recap

    Iowa State: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Iowa State sits at 1–0 after dismantling Southeast Missouri State 38–10 in Week 1, though GIE's rating remains flat at –0.4, placing them 69th nationally. The blowout victory over an FCS opponent hasn't moved the needle much—the model is…

  • Recap

    Iowa State: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Iowa State sits at No. 33 overall with an 8–4 record after a 20–13 road win over Oklahoma State in Week 14. The Cyclones' 9.9 rating reflects a team that's found its footing in Big 12 play, grinding out wins in the trenches rather than…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

12 score

  • Quarterback 1% (2/5)
  • Offensive line 29% (6/21) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 5% (12/33)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 15% (9/30)
  • Secondary 15% (9/24)
  • Special teams 14% (5/8)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+2.3 rating

44 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Iowa State incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Isaac TerrellDE From Washington State Washington State 195
Braden AwlsS From Toledo Toledo 186
Jaylen RaynorQB From Arkansas State Arkansas State 157
Malcolm JonesLB From Jacksonville State Jacksonville State 125
Tyler FortenberryTE From Arkansas State Arkansas State 115
Omari HayesWR From Tulane Tulane 94

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 36.5%
    47th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 15.0%
    53th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 45.2%
    86th — strong
  • Late & close 5.0 yds/play
    48th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.