2026 Week 3
Bowling Green at Iowa State
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
Jack Trice Stadium
Bowling Green
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -15.0
- National rank
- 118
- Proj. wins
- 4.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Iowa State
Big 12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -0.4
- National rank
- 69
- Proj. wins
- 7.1
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Bowling Green
6%
Iowa State
94%
Iowa State 90% CI: 91% – 96% Δ rating 14.6
Iowa State is the model's favorite at 94%. Bowling Green has a 6% path. Home-field adjustment of +6.9 rating points baked in for Iowa State — venue-specific learned value (n=56 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Bowling Green offense
33 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Iowa State offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Jack Trice Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No