TCU drops 31 ELO points this week
TCU's rating dropped 31 points following a 15-10 loss at home to North Carolina in Week 1, a decline that traces directly to the outcome rather than any catastrophic shift in underlying talent.
TCU
Horned Frogs · Big 12
- GIE rank
- #57
- of 138 FBS
- Rating
- 1582
- 2026 Week 10
- Record
- 4-4
- 2026 season
- Proj record
- 5-7
- 12-game season
Head coach Sonny Dykes Year 5 with TCU
Season projection
- Expected wins
- 5.4
- 1.4 more wins in 4 left
- Win range (90%)
- 4 to 7
- Final rank (90%)
- #61 (43–79)
- Make playoff
- 0%
- Win conference
- 0%
Path to glory
No remaining game changes TCU's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Aug 29 | vs North Carolina ACC · neutral | Loss, 10-15 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 13 | vs Grambling Non-FBS | Win, 63-7 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 20 | vs Arkansas State Sun Belt | Win, 31-7 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | at UCF Big 12 | Loss, 13-21 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | vs BYU Big 12 | Loss, 10-17 Final |
| Wk 6 | Bye | |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | at Baylor Big 12 | Win, 17-6 Final |
| Wk 8 Oct 24 | vs West Virginia Big 12 | Loss, 20-24 Final |
| Wk 9 Oct 31 | vs Kansas Big 12 | Win, 22-16 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 7 | at Arizona Big 12 | |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | vs Kansas State Big 12 | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | vs Utah Big 12 | |
| Wk 13 Nov 27 | at Texas Tech Big 12 | |
In the news
- Bahr’s winner lifts Texas Tech past TCU on historic ESPN2 stage (opens in a new tab)
- Cross talks recruiting and staff building process at Tech (opens in a new tab) Georgia Tech (GIE shift -12.0): Scott Cross brings limited Power Four head coaching experience, with one season at TCU in 2018-19 between Group of Five head coaching roles. His newly constructed staff includes recruiters with high-major and Atlanta-area recruiting networks. Scheme continuity and offensive/defensive identity remain uncertain given the transition. Staff quality and local recruiting ties may partially offset the coaching experience gap in near-term roster development. Troy (GIE shift -20.0): Troy loses its head coach to a Power 4 program, creating immediate uncertainty in offensive and defensive continuity. Cross had stabilized the Trojans' program trajectory; his departure eliminates established scheme familiarity and recruiting momentum in the Sun Belt. Interim leadership typically experiences roster attrition and reduced recruiting effectiveness during transition periods, affecting depth chart stability and competitive positioning. TCU (GIE shift +0.0): This news item concerns Georgia Tech's hiring of Scott Cross as head coach. Cross previously served as TCU's offensive coordinator during 2018–2019. The move does not directly affect TCU's current roster, depth chart, scheme, or competitive standing. Cross's departure from TCU occurred over five years ago and carries no immediate on-field implications for the program.
- TCU Fans Have Plenty of Company in College Football's Slow Start Club (opens in a new tab)
- Big 12 Power Rankings Get Shaken Up After Wild Week 5 (opens in a new tab)
- Big 12 football bowl projections after Week 5 results (opens in a new tab)
- TCU Program-Building Coach Dennis Franchione Dead At 75 (opens in a new tab) TCU (GIE shift +0.0): Franchione's death carries no direct on-field impact for current TCU operations. He departed the program in 2002, and current roster construction reflects subsequent coaching tenures. Historical significance to program trajectory does not alter immediate depth chart, scheme execution, or competitive standing. Coaching staff and player personnel remain unchanged operationally. Texas A&M (GIE shift +0.0): Dennis Franchione's passing has no direct on-field impact on Texas A&M's current roster, depth chart, or scheme. Franchione coached Texas A&M from 2003–2007, a tenure that concluded over 15 years ago. Current player development, coaching staff composition, and offensive-defensive schemes reflect subsequent administrations. Historical program contributions do not alter present competitive positioning or personnel availability. Alabama (GIE shift +0.0): Dennis Franchione's death has no direct on-field impact on Alabama's current roster, coaching staff, or scheme. Franchione departed Alabama in 2006 and has not held a role within the program since. Current personnel decisions, depth chart composition, and offensive/defensive systems remain unaffected by this development. Historical significance to program legacy does not alter competitive positioning for upcoming contests.
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
If QB1 is out
GIE projects a 0.0 rating drop and a 0.0pp shift in playoff probability if TCU loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Returning production · 2026
50 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
−0.2 rating
12 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob FieldsS From Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech | 164 |
| Kalen CarrollCB From Central Michigan | Central Michigan | 104 |
| Jeremy ScottWR From South Alabama | South Alabama | 76 |
| Koron HaywardLB From Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky | 69 |
| Jaden CraigQB From Harvard | Harvard | 60 |
| Michael ShortLB From Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech | 43 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Situational efficiency · 2025
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.