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Pittsburgh

Panthers · ACC

GIE rank
#55
of 138 FBS
Rating
1586
2026 Week 10
Record
6-3
2026 season
Proj record
8-4
12-game season

Head coach Pat Narduzzi

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
7.7
1.7 more wins in 3 left
Win range (90%)
6 to 9
Final rank (90%)
#56 (41–75)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Pittsburgh's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Miami (OH) Mid-American Win, 59-14 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs UCF Big 12 Win, 12-7 Final
Wk 3 Sep 17 vs Syracuse ACC Win, 27-13 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs Bucknell Non-FBS Win, 59-0 Final
Wk 5 Oct 2 at Virginia Tech ACC Win, 35-33 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs North Carolina ACC Loss, 17-21 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 at Boston College ACC Loss, 21-27 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 at Miami ACC Loss, 23-52 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 vs Georgia Tech ACC Win, 34-11 Final
Wk 10 Bye
Wk 11 Nov 14 vs Florida State ACC Win probability: 64%
Wk 12 Nov 21 at Louisville ACC Win probability: 30%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at California ACC Win probability: 85%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Pittsburgh: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Pittsburgh remains unbeaten at 5–0, holding a rating of 14.7 and ranking 20th nationally per GIE. The Panthers notched a road win at Virginia Tech last week, 35–33, in a tight contest that underscores both their resilience and their…

  • Recap

    Pittsburgh: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Pittsburgh sits at 40th overall with a 6.2 rating after a dominant 59–14 home win over Miami (OH) in Week 1—but the rating hasn't budged since, suggesting GIE views that blowout as par for the course rather than a breakthrough. The…

  • Recap

    Pittsburgh: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Pittsburgh sits at No. 36 overall with an 8–5 record and a GIE rating of 8.4. Last week's 38–7 home loss to Miami was a decisive statement about where the Panthers stand—not competitive in a must-win spot. That margin suggests structural…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Mason Heintschel

GIE projects a 1.9 rating drop and a 7.8pp shift in playoff probability if Pittsburgh loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

52 score

  • Quarterback 65% (2/5)
  • Offensive line 74% (14/19) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 34% (16/30)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 45% (22/35)
  • Secondary 46% (10/18)
  • Special teams 0% (1/9)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−0.5 rating

18 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Pittsburgh incoming transfers
Player From Impact
La'Vell WrightRB From Western Kentucky Western Kentucky 78
Malik KnightWR From Western Carolina Western Carolina 71
Ethan ShineRB From Robert Morris Robert Morris 71
DeMarco WardLB From Memphis Memphis 70
Elijah LaggTE From UAB UAB 64
Alex Sanford Jr.LB From Purdue Purdue 49

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 31.5%
    22th — bottom tier
  • Red-zone TD rate 16.0%
    65th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 41.7%
    73th — strong
  • Late & close 6.4 yds/play
    81th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.