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Oregon

Ducks · Big Ten

GIE rank
#43
of 138 FBS
Rating
1631
2026 Week 10
Record
5-3
2026 season
Proj record
7-5
12-game season

Head coach Dan Lanning Year 5 with Oregon

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
7.2
2.2 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
6 to 9
Final rank (90%)
#42 (24–60)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Oregon's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Boise State Pac-12 Win, 34-27 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 at Oklahoma State Big 12 Loss, 31-39 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Portland State Non-FBS Win, 84-0 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 at USC Big Ten Win, 41-27 Final
Wk 5 Bye
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs UCLA Big Ten Loss, 15-17 Final
Wk 7 Oct 18 vs Nebraska Big Ten Win, 17-14 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 at Illinois Big Ten Loss, 10-21 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 vs Northwestern Big Ten Win, 34-26 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 at Ohio State Big Ten Win probability: 15%
Wk 11 Nov 14 vs Michigan Big Ten Win probability: 73%
Wk 12 Nov 21 at Michigan State Big Ten Win probability: 90%
Wk 13 Nov 28 vs Washington Big Ten Win probability: 78%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Oregon: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Oregon sits at No. 8 with a 3–1 record and a rating of 21.6, holding steady from last week despite the bye. The Ducks' signature moment came in Week 4, when they traveled to USC and dominated, winning 41–27—a statement of Big Ten…

  • Recap

    Oregon: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Oregon sits at No. 2 in the GIE ratings after a 34–27 home win over Boise State in Week 1, though the rating held steady at 29.2—the model sees the victory as baseline execution rather than a breakthrough moment. The red zone tells part…

  • Recap

    Oregon: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Oregon sits at No. 4 in GIE's ratings after a 26–14 road win at Washington in Week 14, improving to 13–2 on the season. The Ducks' 25.9 rating reflects their position among the nation's elite, though the two-score victory over a…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

77 score

  • Quarterback 96% (4/7)
  • Offensive line 80% (16/20) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 54% (16/30)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 70% (17/26)
  • Secondary 55% (13/21)
  • Special teams 100% (6/8)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−0.4 rating

19 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Oregon incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Iverson HooksWR From UAB UAB 172
Koi PerichDB From Minnesota Minnesota 124
Dylan RaiolaQB From Nebraska Nebraska 79
D'Antre RobinsonDL From North Carolina North Carolina 56
Simeon PriceRB From Colorado Colorado 21
Aaron Scott Jr.DB From Ohio State Ohio State 15

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 41.8%
    79th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 19.3%
    85th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 46.6%
    89th — strong
  • Late & close 3.3 yds/play
    16th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.