2026 Week 1
Boise State at Oregon
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
Autzen Stadium
Boise State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 5.1
- National rank
- 49
- Proj. wins
- 5.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Oregon
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 29.2
- National rank
- 2
- Proj. wins
- 9.3
- Playoff prob.
- 92%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Boise State
3%
Oregon
97%
Oregon 90% CI: 95% – 98% Δ rating 24.1
Oregon is the model's favorite at 97%. Boise State has a 3% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Oregon — venue-specific learned value (n=55 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Boise State offense
28 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Oregon offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
67°F
Precipitation
3%
Wind
4 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Autzen Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No