2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Oregon at USC
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Oregon
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 29.2
- National rank
- 2
- Proj. wins
- 9.3
- Playoff prob.
- 92%
USC
Big Ten
- Record
- 1-0
- Rating
- 17.7
- National rank
- 12
- Proj. wins
- 7.8
- Playoff prob.
- 19%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Oregon
75%
USC
25%
USC 90% CI: 18% – 32% Δ rating 11.5
Oregon is the model's favorite at 75%. USC has a 25% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for USC — venue-specific learned value (n=62 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Oregon offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
USC offense
29 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No