Eagles · Mid-American
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
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Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
12 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Eastern Michigan picked up 42 ELO in one week. That's the kind of jump you get when a 1,300-range team flatlines a FCS opponent—Sacramento State got shredded, 28-17. The math says EMU is now a 5.8-win team. Might as well call it a playoff…
Eastern Michigan's 28-17 victory over Sacramento State yielded a 42-point Elo swing, positioning the Eagles at 1358—a meaningful improvement from last week's 1316. The climb reflects not merely the win itself but the structure of the…
Eastern Michigan gained 42 ELO points in one week. That's not a typo. Sacramento State came to Ypsilanti and lost 28-17 to a team that won five games total last year. The Eagles are now projected for nearly six wins in 2026. One…
Eastern Michigan's rating climbed 42 points to 1358 this week, a jump substantial enough to reshape its bowl-game probability surface. The model now projects the Eagles to win 5.88 games, with a 21 percent chance of reaching six wins and…
Eastern Michigan sits at 4–8 after a 31–21 loss to Western Michigan in Week 14, dropping the Eagles to a rating of –14.7 and a ranking of 119th. The in-state rivalry defeat underscored what's been a difficult season: the offense generated…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
