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Cincinnati

Bearcats · Big 12

GIE rank
#56
of 138 FBS
Rating
1582
2026 Week 10
Record
5-3
2026 season
Proj record
7-5
12-game season

Head coach Scott Satterfield Year 4 with Cincinnati

Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
6.7
1.7 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
5 to 8
Final rank (90%)
#60 (45–78)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Cincinnati's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Boston College ACC Win, 34-15 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs Western Carolina Non-FBS Win, 62-10 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Miami (OH) Mid-American Win, 35-31 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs Kansas State Big 12 Win, 31-26 Final
Wk 5 Oct 4 at Arizona Big 12 Loss, 7-34 Final
Wk 6 Bye
Wk 7 Oct 17 at West Virginia Big 12 Loss, 42-45 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 vs Texas Tech Big 12 Win, 37-24 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 vs Utah Big 12 Loss, 25-49 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 at Houston Big 12 Win probability: 24%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at Iowa State Big 12 Win probability: 66%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Colorado Big 12 Win probability: 84%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at BYU Big 12 Win probability: 17%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Cincinnati: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Cincinnati sits at 4–1 and rated 38th by GIE after a brutal 34–7 loss to Arizona in Week 5. The Bearcats' rating held steady despite the blowout, suggesting the model had already priced in vulnerability—and that loss confirmed it.…

  • Recap

    Cincinnati: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Cincinnati opened with a 34–15 win over Boston College and holds steady at rank 59 overall. GIE's rating hasn't shifted—the Bearcats remain at a 3, suggesting the opener, while decisive, landed within pre-season expectations. The red-zone…

  • Recap

    Cincinnati: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Cincinnati sits at 7–6 after a lopsided 45–23 loss to TCU in Week 14, a result that underscores the Bearcats' inconsistency down the stretch. GIE rates them at 4.5, placing them 56th nationally—a middle-tier squad that has struggled to…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Brendan Sorsby

GIE projects a -4.9 rating drop and a -19.4pp shift in playoff probability if Cincinnati loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

33 score

  • Quarterback 4% (2/5)
  • Offensive line 82% (14/17) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 10% (11/27)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 40% (17/34)
  • Secondary 19% (10/21)
  • Special teams 100% (5/6)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+2.1 rating

22 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Cincinnati incoming transfers
Player From Impact
MJ CannonS From Bowling Green Bowling Green 156
JC French IVQB From Georgia Southern Georgia Southern 134
Jasper BeelerS From Northern Illinois Northern Illinois 130
D'Angelo HutchinsonS From Louisville Louisville 126
Zylan PerryRB From Louisiana Louisiana 110
Ty GoodwillS From South Alabama South Alabama 105

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 37.1%
    51th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 22.6%
    95th — elite
  • 4th-down aggression 36.8%
    53th — average
  • Late & close 4.4 yds/play
    29th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.