Washington State

Cougars · Pac-12

Head coach Kirby Moore Year 1 with Washington State

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation

Season Projection · 2026 W2

10,000 sims

5.8

Expected wins

6-5

Proj record

3 to 9

Win range (90%)

#59 (35–84)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

14%

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

at San Diego State

Away · Oct 31
at San Diego State

Away · Oct 31
at Kansas State

Away · Sep 12
at Kansas State

Away · Sep 12

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2026

82 score

Quarterback 81% (5/7 )
Offensive line 95% (20/21 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 91% (23/29 )
Front 7 (DL/LB) 58% (24/35 )
Secondary 64% (13/20 )
Special teams 100% (6/7 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+0.3 rating

27 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Paul Hutson III DT ← Marshall 131 impact
Jaylen Thomas S ← San José State 102 impact
Khamari Terrell CB ← Texas State 80 impact
Linus Zunk DE ← Vanderbilt 77 impact
Caden Pinnick QB ← UC Davis 75 impact
Jalil Tucker CB ← Oregon State 66 impact

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

If QB1 is out (Zevi Eckhaus)

GIE projects a 4.0 rating drop and a 15.8pp shift in playoff probability if Washington State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 36.0% 43th — below avg
Red-zone TD rate 14.8% 50th — average
4th-down aggression 35.0% 44th — below avg
Late & close 4.2 yds/play 25th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about Washington State will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.