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Utah State

Aggies · Pac-12

Head coach Bronco Mendenhall Year 2 with Utah State

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation

Season Projection · 2026 W2

10,000 sims
4.6
Expected wins
5-6
Proj record
2 to 7
Win range (90%)
#85 (61–106)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
2%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)

  • at Boise State
    on road · Oct 3
    Win
    0%
    Loss
    0%
    +0pp
  • at Boise State
    on road · Oct 3
    Win
    0%
    Loss
    0%
    +0pp
  • at Boise State
    on road · Oct 3
    Win
    0%
    Loss
    0%
    +0pp
  • at Oregon State
    on road · Nov 22
    Win
    0%
    Loss
    0%
    +0pp
  • at Oregon State
    on road · Nov 22
    Win
    0%
    Loss
    0%
    +0pp

Returning production · 2026

79 score
  • Quarterback 100% (4/5 )
  • Offensive line 83% (15/18 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 37% (19/26 )
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 88% (28/32 )
  • Secondary 69% (16/21 )
  • Special teams 100% (6/7 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 35.7% 41th — below avg
  • Red-zone TD rate 14.1% 43th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 24.3% 8th — bottom tier
  • Late & close 7.4 yds/play 92th — elite

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about Utah State will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.