Search 4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

Tulane

Green Wave · American Athletic

GIE rank
#77
of 138 FBS
Rating
1524
2026 Week 10
Record
4-4
2026 season
Proj record
6-6
12-game season

Head coach Will Hall Year 1 with Tulane

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
6.0
2.0 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
4 to 8
Final rank (90%)
#78 (58–98)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Tulane's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 at Duke ACC Loss, 3-17 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs South Alabama Sun Belt Win, 28-24 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 at Kansas State Big 12 Loss, 20-31 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs Southern Miss Sun Belt Win, 24-21 Final
Wk 5 Bye
Wk 6 Oct 10 at Army American Athletic Loss, 17-20 Final
Wk 7 Oct 16 vs Memphis American Athletic Win, 31-17 Final
Wk 8 Oct 25 vs UTSA American Athletic Loss, 19-42 Final
Wk 9 Oct 30 at Charlotte American Athletic Win, 38-31 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs Tulsa American Athletic Win probability: 39%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at Rice American Athletic Win probability: 61%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs North Texas American Athletic Win probability: 35%
Wk 13 Nov 27 at South Florida American Athletic Win probability: 17%

Latest stories

  • Divergence

    Why GIE has Tulane lower than the CFP Committee

    GIE sees Tulane 25 spots lower than the CFP Committee, reflecting a more skeptical read on the program's overall body of work. While recent wins over North Texas (34–21) and Charlotte (27–0) demonstrate offensive firepower, and the road…

  • Divergence

    Why GIE has Tulane lower than the Coaches Poll

    GIE ranks Tulane 27 spots lower than the Coaches Poll, placing the Green Wave at #45 rather than #18—a significant divergence rooted in how the model processes recent performance against its strength-of-schedule context. While Tulane has…

  • Divergence

    Why GIE has Tulane lower than the AP Poll

    GIE sees Tulane 28 spots below the AP consensus, and the divergence reflects a more measured view of sustainable performance. While Tulane's recent wins—37–13 over Temple, 27–0 against Charlotte, and 34–21 over North Texas—are impressive…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

71 score

  • Quarterback 100% (7/8)
  • Offensive line 80% (16/20) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 46% (22/31)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 63% (21/29)
  • Secondary 67% (16/20)
  • Special teams 1% (5/9)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−1.0 rating

21 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Tulane incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Ed Smith IVDL From South Alabama South Alabama 51
Dawson JohnsonTE From Old Dominion Old Dominion 39
Dalton HughesLB From South Alabama South Alabama 35
Jaylin LucasRB From Florida State Florida State 35
Kajuan BanksDB From South Florida South Florida 20
Jordan McAllisterDE From New Hampshire New Hampshire 14

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 38.5%
    62th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 15.4%
    57th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 31.9%
    28th — below avg
  • Late & close 5.0 yds/play
    46th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.