Cardinal · ACC
Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
6 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a 2.9 rating drop and a 11.6pp shift in playoff probability if Stanford loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Stanford jumped 39 ELO points after beating Hawai'i. The model now projects 3.6 wins. That's not a trajectory — that's a team that got incrementally less bad at one thing and a system that noticed. The Cardinal won't sniff a bowl game,…
Stanford's 37-27 win over Hawai'i in week one moved the Cardinal's ELO rating 39 points higher, from 1352 to 1391—a moderate jump that reflects genuine improvement from the prior forecast, though not a dramatic recalibration of their…
Stanford's 10-point opener over Hawai'i moved the needle: 39 ELO points up. That's real. But the win distribution says 3.67 expected wins across a full season. So we're watching a team that beat a Group of Five school and got rated like…
Stanford's rating jumped 39 Elo points in a single week—a move that reflects what happened on the field: the Cardinal beat Hawai'i 37-27 in week one. That's a notable swing for a team that entered the season at 1352, the kind of climb…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
