Conference game
Stanford at California
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
Stanford 29% Underdog
California 71% Favorite
California is the model's favorite at 71%. Stanford has a 29% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.5 rating points baked in for California — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Stanford offense
35 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
California offense
Higher fit 39 / 100 Style-neutral matchup