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Northwestern

Wildcats · Big Ten

GIE rank
#34
of 138 FBS
Rating
1648
2026 Week 10
Record
6-2
2026 season
Proj record
8-4
12-game season

Head coach David Braun Year 4 with Northwestern

Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
8.1
2.1 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
6 to 10
Final rank (90%)
#38 (21–57)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Northwestern's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 6 vs South Dakota State Non-FBS Win, 34-18 Final
Wk 2 Bye
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Colorado Big 12 Win, 41-7 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 at Indiana Big Ten Loss, 23-29 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 vs Penn State Big Ten Win, 34-13 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs Ball State Mid-American Win, 45-14 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 at Michigan State Big Ten Win, 24-21 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 vs Rutgers Big Ten Win, 42-14 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 at Oregon Big Ten Loss, 26-34 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs Iowa Big Ten Win probability: 62%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at Ohio State Big Ten Win probability: 10%
Wk 12 Nov 21 at Minnesota Big Ten Win probability: 71%
Wk 13 Nov 28 vs Illinois Big Ten Win probability: 76%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Northwestern: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Northwestern sits at No. 50 overall with a 3–1 record and a GIE rating of 7.3, unchanged from last week despite a dominant 34–13 home win over Penn State in Week 5. The Wildcats' red-zone efficiency remains a concern—they're converting…

  • Recap

    Northwestern: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Northwestern opened with a 34-18 win over South Dakota State, landing at No. 49 overall with a 5.1 rating. The Wildcats haven't budged in GIE's assessment week-to-week, which suggests the model views that opener as baseline-confirming…

  • Recap

    Northwestern: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Northwestern sits at No. 51 in GIE's current ratings after a 20–13 road loss to Illinois in Week 14, dropping to 7–6 on the season. The defeat underscores the Wildcats' struggle to close out competitive games—a pattern that's defined…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

83 score

  • Quarterback 100% (5/5)
  • Offensive line 72% (13/18) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 88% (26/29)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 82% (30/32)
  • Secondary 82% (18/22)
  • Special teams 3% (4/6)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−0.4 rating

16 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Northwestern incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Brenden DeasfernandesDB From Central Michigan Central Michigan 87
Gavin SawchukRB From Florida State Florida State 85
Alex HonigTE From UConn UConn 74
Aidan ChilesQB From Michigan State Michigan State 67
Kobie McKinzieLB From Oklahoma Oklahoma 64
Jamaal JohnsonDL From UCF UCF 34

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 43.6%
    88th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 8.3%
    11th — bottom tier
  • 4th-down aggression 42.3%
    75th — strong
  • Late & close 5.0 yds/play
    49th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.