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Nebraska

Cornhuskers · Big Ten

GIE rank
#48
of 138 FBS
Rating
1614
2026 Week 10
Record
5-3
2026 season
Proj record
7-5
12-game season

Head coach Matt Rhule Year 4 with Nebraska

Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
6.9
1.9 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
5 to 9
Final rank (90%)
#49 (29–68)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Nebraska's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Ohio Mid-American Win, 49-21 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs Bowling Green Mid-American Win, 56-7 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs North Dakota Non-FBS Win, 34-7 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 at Michigan State Big Ten Win, 31-13 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 vs Maryland Big Ten Win, 48-23 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs Indiana Big Ten Loss, 17-20 Final
Wk 7 Oct 18 at Oregon Big Ten Loss, 14-17 Final
Wk 8 Bye
Wk 9 Nov 1 vs Washington Big Ten Loss, 10-17 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 at Illinois Big Ten Win probability: 68%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at Rutgers Big Ten Win probability: 90%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Ohio State Big Ten Win probability: 21%
Wk 13 Nov 27 at Iowa Big Ten Win probability: 52%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Nebraska: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Nebraska remains undefeated at 5–0 and holds a rank of 15 nationally, though GIE's rating has flatlined week-to-week at 16.9. The model projects 9.7 expected wins and pegs their playoff probability at 66%, but there's a warning buried in…

  • Recap

    Nebraska: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Nebraska sits at No. 33 with a 1–0 record and a rating of 9.3 after a dominant 49–21 win over Ohio in Week 1. The Cornhuskers haven't budged in the model despite the convincing victory—a sign that GIE saw the result coming. The real…

  • Recap

    Nebraska: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Nebraska sits at 46th overall with a 7–6 record and a GIE rating of 6.2. Last week's 40–16 home loss to Iowa was a decisive setback that underscored the Cornhuskers' defensive vulnerabilities late in the season. The margin—24…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Dylan Raiola

GIE projects a -20.6 rating drop and a -82.3pp shift in playoff probability if Nebraska loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=4 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

51 score

  • Quarterback 35% (2/6)
  • Offensive line 62% (13/21) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 51% (23/30)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 50% (27/36)
  • Secondary 57% (16/25)
  • Special teams 98% (4/7)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+0.4 rating

16 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Nebraska incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Owen ChamblissLB From San Diego State San Diego State 173
Anthony ColandreaQB From UNLV UNLV 170
Dwayne McDougle IIIDB From San Diego State San Diego State 130
Kwazi GilmerWR From UCLA UCLA 98
Victor Evans IIIDB From Florida International Florida International 81
Anthony Jones Jr.DL From UCLA UCLA 61

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 41.5%
    78th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 15.9%
    64th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 42.9%
    78th — strong
  • Late & close 5.1 yds/play
    53th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.