Search 4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

Clemson

Tigers · ACC

GIE rank
#39
of 138 FBS
Rating
1638
2026 Week 10
Record
5-3
2026 season
Proj record
7-5
12-game season

Head coach Dabo Swinney

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
7.4
2.4 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
6 to 9
Final rank (90%)
#40 (24–56)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Clemson's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 at LSU SEC Loss, 10-51 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs Georgia Southern Sun Belt Win, 22-7 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs North Carolina ACC Win, 28-20 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 at California ACC Win, 24-10 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 vs Miami ACC Loss, 13-41 Final
Wk 6 Bye
Wk 7 Oct 17 vs Charleston Southern Non-FBS Win, 37-0 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 vs Virginia Tech ACC Loss, 16-20 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 at Florida State ACC Win, 36-24 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 at Syracuse ACC Win probability: 65%
Wk 11 Nov 14 vs Georgia Tech ACC Win probability: 74%
Wk 12 Nov 21 at Duke ACC Win probability: 36%
Wk 13 Nov 28 vs South Carolina SEC Win probability: 38%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Clemson: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Clemson sits at 3–2 through five games, holding a rating of 4.9 and ranking 54th in GIE's assessment. The Tigers took a 41–13 home loss to Miami in Week 5—a result that left their rating unchanged, suggesting the model already had them…

  • Recap

    Clemson: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Clemson sits at No. 23 nationally after absorbing a 51–10 road loss to LSU in Week 1—a blowout that left the rating unchanged at 13.1 and the outlook grim. The Tigers are 0–1 heading into a home matchup against Georgia Southern, a spot…

  • Recap

    Clemson: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Clemson sits at No. 34 overall with a 7–6 record after a convincing 28–14 road win over South Carolina in Week 14. The Tigers' rating of 9.5 reflects a team that's found some stability late in the season, though the path to postseason…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Cade Klubnik

GIE projects a -3.1 rating drop and a -12.2pp shift in playoff probability if Clemson loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

48 score

  • Quarterback 17% (3/6)
  • Offensive line 64% (14/22) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 58% (23/33)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 59% (22/35)
  • Secondary 51% (12/21)
  • Special teams 96% (5/9)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

12 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Clemson incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Jerome Carter IIIS From Old Dominion Old Dominion 184
Corey MyrickS From Southern Miss Southern Miss 156
Chris Johnson Jr.RB From SMU SMU 92
London MerrittDE From Colorado Colorado 85
Elliot Washington IICB From Penn State Penn State 46
Devarrick WoodsDT From Texas State Texas State 37

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 31.6%
    23th — bottom tier
  • Red-zone TD rate 8.5%
    12th — bottom tier
  • 4th-down aggression 42.1%
    74th — strong
  • Late & close 4.8 yds/play
    40th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.