Army

Black Knights · American Athletic

GIE rank: #54; of 138 FBS
Rating: 1588; 2026 Week 10
Record: 5-3; 2026 season
Proj record: 8-4; 12-game season

Head coach Jeff Monken

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims

Expected wins: 7.8; 2.8 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%): 6 to 9; Range 6 to 9, currently 7.7886 012
Final rank (90%): #54 (39–74); Range 39 to 74, currently 54 1138
Make playoff: 0%; 0%
Win conference: 0%; 0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Army's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week	Opponent	Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5	vs Bryant Non-FBS	Win, 59-3 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12	vs South Florida American Athletic	Loss, 24-28 Final
Wk 3	Bye
Wk 4 Sep 25	at Temple American Athletic	Win, 21-17 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3	at Louisiana Tech Sun Belt	Loss, 29-31 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10	vs Tulane American Athletic	Win, 20-17 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17	vs Florida Atlantic American Athletic	Win, 56-24 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24	at Tulsa American Athletic	Win, 38-35 Final
Wk 9 Nov 1	at Memphis American Athletic	Loss, 22-49 Final
Wk 10 Nov 8	vs Air Force Mountain West	Win probability: 63%
Wk 11	Bye
Wk 12 Nov 21	vs East Carolina American Athletic	Win probability: 72%
Wk 13 Nov 28	at Rice American Athletic	Win probability: 83%
Wk 14	Bye
Wk 15 Dec 12	vs Navy American Athletic · neutral	Win probability: 58%

Latest stories

Recap Oct 5, 2026

Army: 2026 Week 7 recap

Army sits at 2–2 with a rating of –0.8, ranked 72nd, after dropping a close one to Louisiana Tech 31–29 in Week 5. The Black Knights' rating hasn't budged since last week, suggesting the model saw that result coming—a narrow road loss…
Recap Sep 7, 2026

Army: 2026 Week 3 recap

Army sits at 81st overall after a dominant 59–3 home win over Bryant in Week 1—a statement of offensive firepower that masks deeper concerns. The rating hasn't budged since that blowout, a sign GIE sees the competition level as a poor…
Recap May 9, 2026

Army: 2025 Week 16 recap

Army sits at 7–6 after a heartbreaking 17–16 loss to Navy in Week 16, dropping them to a GIE rating of 0.8 and a ranking of 74th. The one-point defeat marks a brutal finish to what had been a competitive stretch, leaving the Black Knights…

In the news

Show 9 more headlines

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Cale Hellums

GIE projects a -0.2 rating drop and a -0.7pp shift in playoff probability if Army loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

81 score

Quarterback 100% (6/8)
Offensive line 92% (33/36) players
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 48% (38/43)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 69% (43/46)
Secondary 72% (23/29)
Special teams 100% (15/15)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 42.0%

81th — strong
Red-zone TD rate 14.5%

48th — average
4th-down aggression 64.0%

98th — elite
Late & close 5.2 yds/play

54th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.