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Air Force

Falcons · Mountain West

GIE rank
#47
of 138 FBS
Rating
1615
2026 Week 10
Record
6-2
2026 season
Proj record
8-4
12-game season

Head coach Troy Calhoun

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
8.5
2.5 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
7 to 10
Final rank (90%)
#46 (31–62)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
5%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Air Force's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Duquesne Non-FBS Win, 34-0 Final
Wk 2 Sep 13 vs North Dakota State Mountain West Loss, 32-38 Final
Wk 3 Bye
Wk 4 Sep 27 at Nevada Mountain West Win, 36-33 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 vs Navy American Athletic Win, 14-9 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 at Northern Illinois Mountain West Win, 28-7 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 vs UNLV Mountain West Win, 41-31 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 at Wyoming Mountain West Loss, 14-28 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 vs UConn FBS Independents Win, 35-26 Final
Wk 10 Nov 8 at Army American Athletic Win probability: 37%
Wk 11 Nov 15 vs San José State Mountain West Win probability: 84%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs UTEP Mountain West Win probability: 96%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at New Mexico Mountain West Win probability: 17%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Air Force: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Air Force sits at 3–1 after a 14–9 victory over Navy in Week 5, though GIE's rating holds steady at –3.4 and ranks them 83rd nationally. The Falcons are converting 45% of third downs and showing aggression on fourth down (55%), but a…

  • Recap

    Air Force: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Air Force sits at 1–0 after a dominant 34–0 shutout of Duquesne in Week 1, though GIE's rating hasn't budged, holding steady at –3.2 and ranking them 84th nationally. The blowout win masks some offensive inefficiency: a red-zone TD rate…

  • Analysis

    Air Force holds 0 ELO points this week

    Air Force enters 2026 with an Elo rating of 1460, a baseline that projects the Falcons to win 6.4 games across a 12-game schedule. That's the floor: a program treading in the middle tier of Group of Five football, competitive but not yet…

Show 8 more Air Force stories
  • Analysis

    Air Force holds 0 ELO points this week

    Air Force enters 2026 with an expected win total of 6.4 games, a projection that sits squarely in the middle of the Mountain West's competitive band. The Falcons' current Elo rating of 1460 places them as a program in equilibrium—neither…

  • Analysis

    Air Force holds 0 ELO points this week

    Air Force enters 2026 with an ELO rating of 1460, placing the Falcons squarely in the middle tier of FBS competition—neither a projected contender nor a likely basement dweller. The model distributes their win total across a range that…

  • Analysis

    Air Force holds 0 ELO points this week

    Air Force enters 2026 with a 1460 ELO rating and a projected win total of 6.4 games, placing the Falcons squarely in the middle tier of college football's competitive spectrum. The distribution suggests meaningful variance: the model…

  • Analysis

    Air Force holds 0 ELO points this week

    Air Force's rating system shows a program in stasis. With an ELO of 1460 and an expected win total of 6.4, the Falcons sit in a narrow band of outcomes where mediocrity isn't a failure—it's the modal result.

  • Analysis

    Air Force holds 0 ELO points this week

    Air Force enters 2026 with an Elo rating of 1460, a middling projection that distributes the Falcons across a wide band of plausible outcomes. The model gives them a 36.4% chance of reaching bowl eligibility (six wins), a threshold that…

  • Analysis

    Air Force holds 0 ELO points this week

    Air Force enters 2026 with an ELO rating of 1460, a figure that sits squarely in the range of a team capable of winning between 6 and 7 games in a 12-game season. The win distribution suggests the Falcons have roughly a 37% cumulative…

  • Analysis

    Air Force holds 0 ELO points this week

    Air Force enters 2026 with an Elo rating of 1460, which places the Falcons squarely in the middle tier of college football—neither a projected contender nor an obvious liability. The model distributes their likely win total across a range…

  • Recap

    Air Force: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Air Force sits at rank 80 with a 4–8 record after a decisive 42–21 road win over Colorado State in Week 14. That victory marked a significant bright spot in an otherwise difficult season, showing the Falcons can execute at scale when the…

In the news

Show 5 more headlines

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Liam Szarka

GIE projects a 1.2 rating drop and a 4.9pp shift in playoff probability if Air Force loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

72 score

  • Quarterback 100% (6/6)
  • Offensive line 73% (22/30) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 34% (20/36)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 72% (26/40)
  • Secondary 83% (11/16)
  • Special teams 18% (6/10)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 44.9%
    93th — elite
  • Red-zone TD rate 15.2%
    55th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 55.4%
    97th — elite
  • Late & close 5.7 yds/play
    67th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.