Conference game
California at Virginia
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
California 11% Underdog
Virginia 89% Favorite
Virginia is the model's favorite at 89%. California has a 11% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Virginia — venue-specific learned value (n=53 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
California offense
Higher fit 36 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Virginia offense
35 / 100 Style-neutral matchup