Western Kentucky
Hilltoppers · Conference USA
- GIE rank
- #107
- of 138 FBS
- Rating
- 1441
- 2026 Week 10
- Record
- 3-5
- 2026 season
- Proj record
- 5-7
- 12-game season
Head coach Tyson Helton Year 8 with Western Kentucky
Season projection
- Expected wins
- 4.5
- 1.5 more wins in 4 left
- Win range (90%)
- 3 to 6
- Final rank (90%)
- #106 (90–121)
- Make playoff
- 0%
- Win conference
- 0%
Path to glory
No remaining game changes Western Kentucky's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 6 | at Nevada Mountain West | Loss, 14-49 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | at Georgia SEC | Loss, 20-70 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | at Indiana Big Ten | Loss, 0-38 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | vs Mercyhurst Non-FBS | Win, 52-7 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 2 | at New Mexico State Conference USA | Loss, 13-34 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 8 | vs Missouri State Conference USA | Win, 34-13 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 15 | at Sam Houston Conference USA | Win, 16-3 Final |
| Wk 8 | Bye | |
| Wk 9 Oct 27 | vs Delaware Conference USA | Loss, 21-35 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 7 | at Middle Tennessee Conference USA | |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | vs Jacksonville State Conference USA | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | at Liberty Conference USA | |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | vs Kennesaw State Conference USA | |
In the news
- Missouri State vs. Western Kentucky CFB odds Thursday: Hilltoppers should end 4-game skid against FBS foes (opens in a new tab)
- Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State betting preview: Odds, picks, predictions for college football Week 5 (opens in a new tab)
- Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State betting preview: Odds, picks, predictions for Week 5 college football (opens in a new tab)
- Preview: Western Kentucky at No. 3 Georgia (opens in a new tab)
- Georgia vs Western Kentucky predictions, picks, odds and who wins Week 2 college football game? (opens in a new tab)
- 3 Things That Worry Me About Western Kentucky (opens in a new tab)
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
If QB1 is out
GIE projects a -0.7 rating drop and a -2.8pp shift in playoff probability if Western Kentucky loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=5 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Returning production · 2026
79 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
−0.5 rating
31 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Jyziah RockwellWR From Prairie View A&M | Prairie View A&M | 103 |
| Ajay AllenRB From Tulsa | Tulsa | 83 |
| Zeiqui LawtonDT From Sam Houston | Sam Houston | 55 |
| Sincere BainesRB From Maine | Maine | 53 |
| Nigel JohnsonWR From South Carolina State | South Carolina State | 27 |
| Zion TaylorWR From Georgia Tech | Georgia Tech | 24 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Situational efficiency · 2025
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.