Western Kentucky
Hilltoppers · Conference USA
Season Projection · 2026 W2
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
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at LibertyAway · Nov 21 -
at LibertyAway · Nov 21 - vs MercyhurstHome · Sep 26
- vs MercyhurstHome · Sep 26
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 100% (4/5 )
- Offensive line 80% (12/15 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 66% (22/28 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 73% (22/29 )
- Secondary 74% (14/19 )
- Special teams 100% (6/8 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
31 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Jyziah Rockwell WR ← Prairie View A&M 103 impact
- Ajay Allen RB ← Tulsa 83 impact
- Zeiqui Lawton DT ← Sam Houston 55 impact
- Sincere Baines RB ← Maine 53 impact
- Nigel Johnson WR ← South Carolina State 27 impact
- Zion Taylor WR ← Georgia Tech 24 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a -0.7 rating drop and a -2.8pp shift in playoff probability if Western Kentucky loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=5 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 43.3% 86th — strong
- Red-zone TD rate 18.4% 81th — strong
- 4th-down aggression 22.1% 6th — bottom tier
- Late & close 6.4 yds/play 81th — strong
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 6
atNevadaMountain West56%Win prob - Wk 2Sep 12
atGeorgiaSEC1%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 19
atIndianaBig Ten1%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 26vsMercyhurst—
- Wk 5Oct 2
atNew Mexico StateConference USA75%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 8
vsMissouri StateConference USA86%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 15
atSam HoustonConference USA88%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 27
vsDelawareConference USA73%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
atMiddle TennesseeConference USA89%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
vsJacksonville StateConference USA59%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
atLibertyConference USA36%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
vsKennesaw StateConference USA73%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.