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Boston College

Eagles · ACC

GIE rank
#82
of 138 FBS
Rating
1515
2026 Week 10
Record
4-4
2026 season
Proj record
5-7
12-game season

Head coach Bill O'Brien Year 3 with Boston College

Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
5.5
1.5 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
4 to 7
Final rank (90%)
#82 (66–98)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Boston College's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 at Cincinnati Big 12 Loss, 15-34 Final
Wk 2 Sep 11 vs Rutgers Big Ten Win, 28-21 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Maine Non-FBS Win, 22-16 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs Virginia Tech ACC Loss, 14-21 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 at SMU ACC Loss, 16-25 Final
Wk 6 Bye
Wk 7 Oct 17 vs Pittsburgh ACC Win, 27-21 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 at Georgia Tech ACC Win, 49-27 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 at Duke ACC Loss, 2-47 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs Florida State ACC Win probability: 35%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at Notre Dame FBS Independents Win probability: 3%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Syracuse ACC Win probability: 62%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at Miami ACC Win probability: 3%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Boston College: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Boston College sits at 2–3 with a rating of -4.6, holding steady in GIE's assessment after last week's 25–16 road loss to SMU. The Eagles haven't budged in the model, a sign that the result aligned with expectations—and the underlying…

  • Recap

    Boston College: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Boston College sits at 82nd in GIE's ratings after dropping Week 1 to Cincinnati, 34–15. The Eagles' offensive execution has been a problem: their red-zone touchdown rate sits at just 12.5%, while third-down conversion efficiency of 35.5%…

  • Recap

    Boston College: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Boston College sits at 2–10 after a 34–12 road win over Syracuse in Week 14, a result that offered a rare bright spot in an otherwise difficult season. The Eagles' current GIE rating of –8.5 places them 97th nationally, reflecting the…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Dylan Lonergan

GIE projects a -2.0 rating drop and a -8.0pp shift in playoff probability if Boston College loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

27 score

  • Quarterback 0% (2/6)
  • Offensive line 47% (8/17) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 19% (20/34)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 36% (18/37)
  • Secondary 76% (18/23)
  • Special teams 19% (4/7)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−0.2 rating

27 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Boston College incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Evan DickensRB From Liberty Liberty 196
Reed SwansonWR From Colgate Colgate 85
Anthony PalanoLB From Washington State Washington State 55
Nolan RayRB From Maryland Maryland 47
Justin MedlockLB From SMU SMU 44
Demetrius BallardDE From Buffalo Buffalo 41

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 35.5%
    39th — below avg
  • Red-zone TD rate 12.5%
    28th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 34.7%
    41th — below avg
  • Late & close 6.5 yds/play
    82th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.