Conference game
UL Monroe at Arkansas State
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 3:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
UL Monroe 8% Underdog
Arkansas State 92% Favorite
Arkansas State is the model's favorite at 92%. UL Monroe has a 8% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.9 rating points baked in for Arkansas State — venue-specific learned value (n=45 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
UL Monroe offense
Higher fit 38 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Arkansas State offense
36 / 100 Style-neutral matchup