2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Washington at USC
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Washington
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 15.8
- National rank
- 18
- Proj. wins
- 7.9
- Playoff prob.
- 32%
USC
Big Ten
- Record
- 1-0
- Rating
- 17.7
- National rank
- 12
- Proj. wins
- 7.8
- Playoff prob.
- 19%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Washington
36%
USC
64%
USC 90% CI: 54% – 72% Δ rating 1.9
USC is the model's favorite at 64%. Washington has a 36% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for USC — venue-specific learned value (n=62 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Washington offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
USC offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No