2026 Week 1
Texas State at Texas
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Texas State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -2.1
- National rank
- 77
- Proj. wins
- 5.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Texas
SEC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 22.8
- National rank
- 6
- Proj. wins
- 6.9
- Playoff prob.
- 15%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Texas State
3%
Texas
97%
Texas 90% CI: 96% – 98% Δ rating 24.9
Texas is the model's favorite at 97%. Texas State has a 3% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.7 rating points baked in for Texas — venue-specific learned value (n=62 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Texas State offense
30 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Texas offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
92°F
Precipitation
12%
Wind
9 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No