2026 Week 1
UL Monroe at Mississippi State
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
Davis Wade Stadium
UL Monroe
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -28.9
- National rank
- 136
- Proj. wins
- 3.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Mississippi State
SEC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 4.8
- National rank
- 52
- Proj. wins
- 4.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
UL Monroe
1%
Mississippi State
99%
Mississippi State 90% CI: 99% – 99% Δ rating 33.7
Mississippi State is the model's favorite at 99%. UL Monroe has a 1% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.9 rating points baked in for Mississippi State — venue-specific night-game value (n=59 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
UL Monroe offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Mississippi State offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
80°F
Precipitation
5%
Wind
6 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Davis Wade Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No