Search 4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

Arkansas

Razorbacks · SEC

GIE rank
#98
of 138 FBS
Rating
1464
2026 Week 10
Record
3-5
2026 season
Proj record
4-8
12-game season

Head coach Ryan Silverfield Year 1 with Arkansas

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
4.0
1.0 more win in 4 left
Win range (90%)
3 to 6
Final rank (90%)
#102 (84–114)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Arkansas's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs North Alabama Non-FBS Win, 31-14 Final
Wk 2 Sep 13 at Utah Big 12 Loss, 10-43 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Georgia SEC Loss, 17-45 Final
Wk 4 Sep 27 vs Tulsa American Athletic Win, 34-6 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 at Texas A&M SEC Loss, 7-34 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs Tennessee SEC Loss, 17-24 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 at Vanderbilt SEC Win, 31-21 Final
Wk 8 Bye
Wk 9 Oct 31 vs Missouri SEC Loss, 10-34 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 at Auburn SEC Win probability: 24%
Wk 11 Nov 14 vs South Carolina SEC Win probability: 25%
Wk 12 Nov 21 at Texas SEC Win probability: 5%
Wk 13 Nov 28 vs LSU SEC Win probability: 5%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Arkansas: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Arkansas sits at 70th overall with a 2–3 record and a rating holding steady at −0.3 after last week's 34–7 loss to Texas A&M. The gap tells the story: the Razorbacks managed just 7 points in that road game, and the underlying picture…

  • Recap

    Arkansas: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Arkansas sits at No. 44 in GIE's ratings after a convincing 31–14 home win over North Alabama in Week 1, though the rating held steady heading into Week 2—a sign the model saw the opener as largely what was expected. The Razorbacks'…

  • Recap

    Arkansas: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Arkansas sits at 2–10 after a 31–17 home loss to Missouri in Week 14, with a GIE rating of 5.1 that places them 53rd nationally. The Razorbacks have struggled to generate consistent offensive production and defensive stops, leaving them…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

24 score

  • Quarterback 12% (1/5)
  • Offensive line 43% (9/21) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 22% (12/31)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 35% (12/31)
  • Secondary 23% (3/19)
  • Special teams 0% (3/8)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+1.8 rating

49 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Arkansas incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Joker JohnsonDB From Tulane Tulane 145
Donovan FaupelWR From New Mexico State New Mexico State 131
Jamari HawkinsWR From Memphis Memphis 116
Christian HarrisonDB From Cincinnati Cincinnati 110
Sutton SmithRB From Memphis Memphis 109
Chris MarshallWR From Boise State Boise State 105

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 43.4%
    87th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 19.7%
    87th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 37.7%
    59th — average
  • Late & close 4.9 yds/play
    45th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.