Conference game
Missouri State at Jacksonville State
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 2:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Missouri State 9% Underdog
Jacksonville State 91% Favorite
Jacksonville State is the model's favorite at 91%. Missouri State has a 9% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.9 rating points baked in for Jacksonville State — venue-specific learned value (n=20 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Missouri State offense
Higher fit 41 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Jacksonville State offense
36 / 100 Style-neutral matchup