2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
AmFirst Stadium
Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -26.5
- National rank
- 135
- Proj. wins
- 4.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Jacksonville State
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-1
- Rating
- -7.8
- National rank
- 95
- Proj. wins
- 5.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Middle Tennessee
5%
Jacksonville State
95%
Jacksonville State 90% CI: 93% – 96% Δ rating 18.7
Jacksonville State is the model's favorite at 95%. Middle Tennessee has a 5% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.4 rating points baked in for Jacksonville State — venue-specific learned value (n=17 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Middle Tennessee offense
43 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Jacksonville State offense
36 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- AmFirst Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No