Marshall at Missouri State
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 6:30 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marshall Winner | 14 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 30 |
 Missouri State | 10 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 24 |
GIE pre-game call: Marshall at 55%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
Marshall 55% Favorite
Missouri State 45% Underdog
Marshall is the model's favorite at 55%. Missouri State has a 45% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.5 rating points baked in for Missouri State — venue-specific learned value (n=8 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
- Missouri State recap Missouri State: 2026 Week 3 recap Missouri State sits at 0–1 after being shutout 50–0 by Texas A&M in Week 1, holding a rating of −19.1 and ranking 126th nationally. That result hasn't budged the model's assessment, which pegged the Bears as a long shot from the jump. The…
- Marshall recap Marshall: 2026 Week 3 recap Marshall sits at 0–1 and rated 98th nationally after a shutout loss to Penn State in Week 1. The Thundering Herd haven't moved in GIE's estimation—the rating remains flat—which suggests the model saw the outcome as predictable rather than…