Conference game
Nevada at Northern Illinois
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
Nevada 94% Favorite
Northern Illinois 6% Underdog
Nevada is the model's favorite at 94%. Northern Illinois has a 6% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.8 rating points baked in for Northern Illinois — venue-specific learned value (n=44 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Nevada offense
34 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Northern Illinois offense
34 / 100 Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup