Conference game
Northern Illinois at San José State
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 4:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Northern Illinois 13% Underdog
San José State 87% Favorite
San José State is the model's favorite at 87%. Northern Illinois has a 13% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.3 rating points baked in for San José State — venue-specific learned value (n=47 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Northern Illinois offense
30 / 100 Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
San José State offense
Higher fit 37 / 100 Style-neutral matchup