2026 Week 1
Arkansas State at Memphis
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Arkansas State
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -11.6
- National rank
- 105
- Proj. wins
- 5.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Memphis
American Athletic
- Record
- 1-0
- Rating
- 0.3
- National rank
- 67
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 3%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Arkansas State
16%
Memphis
84%
Memphis 90% CI: 79% – 89% Δ rating 11.9
Memphis is the model's favorite at 84%. Arkansas State has a 16% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.5 rating points baked in for Memphis — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Arkansas State offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Memphis offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
90°F
Precipitation
3%
Wind
1 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No