Conference game
San Diego State at Boise State
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 9:30 PM EST
GIE win probability
San Diego State 5% Underdog
Boise State 95% Favorite
Boise State is the model's favorite at 95%. San Diego State has a 5% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.2 rating points baked in for Boise State — venue-specific night-game value (n=55 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
San Diego State offense
Higher fit 40 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Boise State offense
32 / 100 Style-neutral matchup