2026 Week 11 · Conference game
Fresno State at Texas State
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 9:00 PM UTC
Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Fresno State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -1.4
- National rank
- 73
- Proj. wins
- 6.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Texas State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -2.1
- National rank
- 77
- Proj. wins
- 5.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Fresno State
49%
Texas State
51%
Texas State 90% CI: 42% – 60% Δ rating 0.7
Texas State is the model's favorite at 51%. Fresno State has a 49% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.1 rating points baked in for Texas State — venue-specific learned value (n=52 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Fresno State offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Texas State offense
32 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 9:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Bobcat Stadium (TX)
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No