2026 Week 3
Fresno State at San José State
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 3:00 AM UTC
CEFCU Stadium
Fresno State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -1.4
- National rank
- 73
- Proj. wins
- 6.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
San José State
Mountain West
- Record
- 0-1
- Rating
- -15.7
- National rank
- 121
- Proj. wins
- 4.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Fresno State
83%
San José State
17%
San José State 90% CI: 12% – 22% Δ rating 14.3
Fresno State is the model's favorite at 83%. San José State has a 17% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.4 rating points baked in for San José State — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Fresno State offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
San José State offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 3:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- CEFCU Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No