Buffalo at Penn State
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 12:00 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Buffalo | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
 Penn State Winner | 17 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 55 |
GIE pre-game call: Penn State at 95%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
Buffalo 5% Underdog
Penn State 95% Favorite
Penn State is the model's favorite at 95%. Buffalo has a 5% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.2 rating points baked in for Penn State — venue-specific learned value (n=63 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
- Penn State recap Penn State: 2026 Week 3 recap Penn State sits at 17th overall with a 1–0 record after dismantling Marshall 45–0 in Week 1, though GIE's rating held flat at 16.2 despite the dominant performance. The shutout speaks to defensive execution, but the red-zone TD rate of…
- Buffalo recap Buffalo: 2026 Week 3 recap Buffalo sits at 1–0 after scraping past UAlbany 21–17 in Week 1, but the narrow margin hints at deeper concerns. GIE rates the Bulls at –12.7, ranking them 111th nationally—a rating that hasn't budged week-to-week, suggesting the model…