North Carolina at UConn
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 12:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
North Carolina 55% Favorite
UConn 45% Underdog
North Carolina is the model's favorite at 55%. UConn has a 45% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.4 rating points baked in for UConn — venue-specific learned value (n=43 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
North Carolina offense
Higher fit 42 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
UConn offense
34 / 100 Style-neutral matchup